PBMC - Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas

Brazil faces drop in crops

Country's status as world's major producer and exporter of food could be severely threatened unless its farming methods are urgently adapted to take account of climate change

Higher temperatures, drastic changes in rainfall, lower productivity, more blight and disease − these are just some of the expected consequences of climate change in Brazil if the projections of 345 scientists who make up the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change (PBMC) prove true.

They predict that if present trends in greenhouse gas emissions continue, average temperatures in Brazil will be 3º-6ºC higher by 2100 than they were at the end of the 20th century.

Rainfall patterns could change drastically, increasing by up to 30% in the south and south-east of the country, while diminishing by up to 40% in the north and north-east.

The forecasts, based on research over the past six years, are contained in a report that provides the most complete diagnosis yet of the future tendencies of the Brazilian climate.

The report will be presented at Brazil's first national conference on global climate change, to be held in São Paulo from 9-13 September and organised by the publicly-funded São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP). The data will then be included in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to be released two weeks later.

The changes in temperature and rainfall will not be confined to Brazil, the largest country in South America, but will also affect neighbouring countries.

"With the exception of Chile's central and southern coast, where the last decades have seen a cooling, there will be a rise in temperature in all the other regions of South America," says Jose Marengo, a climate scientist at Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE), who uses regional climate models to develop projections for the future.

"There is a feeling that the seasons have become a bit crazy, with more frequent extremes of climate."

Tornados, once a rare occurrence, will become more frequent. Big and medium-sized cities will become hotter, with altered rain patterns. Rainfall in the Amazon region and in the semi-arid caatinga area of the north-east could fall by 40%, whereas in the south and south-east it could increase by 30%.

For the cerrado savanna region of the central plateau, which has become a major cereal growing area, and the wetlands of the Pantanal, climate models also indicate significant changes, although the reliability of these projections is lower.

All these changes will have a dramatic effect on harvests in one of the world's major food producing countries, but Brazil's farmers have so far shown little awareness of the problems in store, and consequently have not begun to adapt to the changing climate. Monocultures continue to expand, advancing into the Amazon region and taking over the cerrado.

"We must act now to avoid a worsening situation," warns Eduardo Assad, one of the PBMC researchers, who works for Embrapa, the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation.

Suggested measures include investing intensively in mixed agricultural systems, and abandoning the practice of monoculture. Farmers should also increase the biological fixation of nitrogen, reduce the use of pesticides (since 2008, Brazil has been the world's biggest consumer), and increase the rotation of crops.

"The knowledge to do all this already exists, but we need stronger government guidance [for farmers]," Assad warns. "We must increase productivity in the mid-west, south-east and south to avoid the destruction of the Amazon. The reorganisation of Brazil's rural space is urgent."

Antonio Magalhães, adviser to the government's Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation, also believes that agricultural, industrial and urban policies must be changed to include concerns with sustainability and extreme climate events such as rainstorms and droughts. "We must widen the debate and overcome institutional rigidity, resistances and short-term interests."

Crop losses are already being noted. "Since 2000, we have seen a fall in productivity in some regions, principally in coffee, soy and maize," Assad says.

Soy will be the most affected. By the end of 2013, Brazil is expected to overtake the US to become the world's major producer, but that position will be hard to sustain if the expected effects of climate change kick in.

"Even if the amount of rain stays the same, soil humidity will fall, because the rise in average temperatures will increase evaporation," Magalhães warns.

This will affect regions, such as the semi-arid north-east, where lack of water is a constant. The productivity of basic crops such as maize, beans, cotton, cassava and rice will suffer, leading to a drop in income in the region that is already Brazil's most backward in terms of social indicators intensifying poverty.

The federal government's successful poverty reduction programme, Bolsa Familia, will not be enough to stop a renewal of migration from the rural area to the cities, worsening infrastructure problems related to housing, transport and sanitation.

The PBMC report foresees that climate change in Brazil will also bring an increase in fungal diseases and pests, caused by the rise of CO² levels in the air and ultraviolet B radiation. In addition to cereals, fruit crops such as banana, mango and grape will be hit.

The report also says that more, and more intense, episodes of flooding and drought could alter the volume of the rivers and affect the supply of water to dam reservoirs. Hydropower accounts for well over half of Brazil's energy.

Biodiversity will be badly affected, including that of aquatic environments. Some biomes, characterised by a dominant vegetation, have already lost large areas because of intensive agriculture − the cerrado has lost 47% and the caatinga 44% − and it is now questionable whether their ecological equilibrium can be restored.

In the cities, where more than 85% of Brazilians now live, there will be a greater risk of mudslides and worse flooding, while many of the major cities − such as Rio, Salvador and Recife − are on the coast, and therefore subject to a possible rise in ocean levels.

The researchers want their report to be used to guide the drawing up and implementation of public policies for climate change adaptation and mitigation, as well as to help companies in their future planning.

The report, the first by the PBMC, also marks Brazil's acceptance by the IPCC as a nation supplying projections on a planetary scale. This is because it has developed its own climate simulation model, the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) − the only country in the southern hemisphere to do so.

The establishment of the BESM has enabled the scientists to reconstruct recent occurrences of the El Niño climate phenomenon − caused by abnormal heating up of the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific, which affects the rainfall regime in a large part of the planet − and simulate the effects of future El Niños.

Photograph: Paulo Fridman/Getty Images/Bloomberg - Soybeans are harvested at the Fartura Farm in Campo Verde, Brazil. Scientists say climate change will severely impact the country's food growing capacity.

Fonte: The Guardian

FAPESP sedia Conferência de Mudanças Climáticas Globais

Agência FAPESP – A Rede Brasileira de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais (Rede CLIMA), a FAPESP, no âmbito do Programa FAPESP de Pesquisa sobre Mudanças Climáticas Globais (PFPMCG), e o Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia para Mudanças Climáticas (INCT-MC) realizam em São Paulo, de 9 a 13 de setembro, a 1ª Conferência Nacional de Mudanças Climáticas Globais, no Espaço Apas, Rua Pio XI, 1200, Alto da Lapa.

O encontro procura difundir avanços do conhecimento sobre a variabilidade climática no Brasil e no mundo para apoiar decisões e estratégias de adaptação e mitigação das variações ambientais. Participam do encontro cientistas e formuladores de políticas públicas.

Entre os temas que serão tratados na conferência estão as prováveis consequências de alterações no regime de chuvas e elevação da temperatura no país, como a redução da produção de alimentos como arroz, feijão, milho e trigo – observada por pesquisadores da Embrapa desde 2000 – e o agravamento de problemas de saúde pública causados pela elevação da temperatura e da umidade do ar nas cidades.

Os primeiros relatórios sobre o clima no Brasil

Na segunda-feira (09/09), a Conferência terá início com mesa-redonda sobre o Modelo Brasileiro do Sistema Terrestre (BESM, na sigla em inglês), apresentando os principais desafios para a modelagem climática na região do Atlântico Sul, com foco em mudanças relacionadas a Oceanos, Atmosfera, Superfície e Química.

Em seguida, serão apresentados os primeiros três relatórios de avaliação nacional do Painel Brasileiro de Mudanças Climáticas (PBMC), criado em 2009 pelos ministérios do Meio Ambiente e da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação para fornecer avaliações científicas sobre as mudanças climáticas de relevância para o Brasil.

Os relatórios trazem as principais conclusões de estudos realizados por 345 pesquisadores entre 2007 e início de 2013 sobre ocorrência das mudanças climáticas, seus impactos e formas de redução da emissão de gases de efeito estufa no Brasil.

Os documentos foram preparados nos moldes do Painel Intergovernamental das Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC, na sigla em inglês), estabelecido em 1988 pela Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) para fornecer informações científicas para o entendimento das mudanças climáticas no mundo. Atualmente, 195 países são membros do IPCC.

A Conferência terá seis mesas-redondas com a participação de cientistas e representantes de instituições envolvidas na discussão nacional sobre as mudanças climáticas globais.

Os debates serão sobre eventos climáticos extremos e desastres naturais; apoio da ciência, tecnologia e inovação em mudanças globais a políticas públicas; inventário e monitoramento de emissões e remoções de gases de efeito estufa; relação ciência-planos setoriais; e detecção, mitigação, impactos e vulnerabilidade.

Os resultados de pesquisa científica sobre mudanças climáticas a serem apresentados e discutidos na conferência foram produzidos por mais de 2 mil cientistas de grupos de pesquisa ligados ao Programa FAPESP de Pesquisa em Mudanças Climáticas Globais, à Rede Clima e ao INCT-Mudanças Climáticas. Essa pesquisa, desenvolvida em universidades e instituições brasileiras e estrangeiras, subsidia hoje a elaboração de estratégias de adaptação, estudos sobre vulnerabilidade e a adoção de medidas de mitigação.

Inscrições: www.fapesp.br/eventos/conclima/confirmacao

Mais informações sobre o evento: www.fapesp.br/conclima/programa/conclima_programacao.pdf

Fonte: Agência FAPESP

Humanidade tem pouco tempo para conter mudanças climáticas, alerta ONU

A humanidade empurrou o sistema climático para a beira do abismo e agora conta com uma margem de tempo muito pequena para agir, advertiu na segunda-feira (2) o chefe de climatologistas da ONU (Organização das Nações Unidas).

“Temos cinco minutos para a meia-noite”, alertou o indiano Rajendra Pachauri, cujo Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC, na sigla em inglês) divulgará este mês o primeiro volume de um novo relatório dedicado ao aquecimento global e seus impactos.

“Podemos utilizar as dádivas da natureza como quisermos, mas em nossos registros os débitos são sempre iguais aos créditos”, disse Pachauri durante entrevista coletiva por ocasião dos 20 anos da organização ambientalista Green Cross International, citando seu compatriota, o pacifista Mahatma Gandhi.

“Devo afirmar que a humanidade ignorou completamente, desconsiderou e tem sido totalmente indiferente aos débitos?”, questionou. “Hoje, nós temos o conhecimento para conseguir estimar os débitos e entender o que fizemos para o planeta chegar a esta situação.”

Integram o IPCC 700 cientistas de todo o mundo. A organização deve publicar o primeiro volume de seu muito aguardado 5º Relatório de Avaliação no próximo dia 27 de setembro. O primeiro tomo abordará as evidências científicas das mudanças climáticas. Outros dois serão publicados no ano que vem e se concentrarão nos impactos e nas opções para se enfrentar o problema.

Segundo um esboço que vazou duas semanas atrás, a atividade humana é quase certamente a causa das mudanças climáticas.

O rascunho também prevê que os níveis dos mares poderão subir 90 centímetros até o fim do século 21 e descartou alegações recentes de uma redução no ritmo do aquecimento nas quais os céticos das mudanças climáticas vinham se apoiando.

Em informes anteriores, o IPCC alertou que um aquecimento sem controle levará muitas espécies à extinção e fará aumentar a frequência ou a intensidade de secas, ondas de calor e inundações, afetando a segurança alimentar e as fontes de água para muitos milhões de pessoas.

“Não podemos nos isolar dos efeitos de qualquer coisa que aconteça em qualquer parte do nosso planeta. Isto afetará a todos nós de uma forma ou de outra”, disse Pachauri.

Controlar as emissões de gases estufa ainda é possível se países, inclusive no mundo em desenvolvimento, repensarem sua abordagem sobre o crescimento econômico, afirmou.

Isto impulsionaria a segurança energética, reduziria a poluição e melhoraria a saúde, bem como criaria novas oportunidades de trabalho, acrescentou. (Fonte: UOL)

Brazil faces drop in crops

Brazil’s standing as one of the world’s major producers and exporters of food could be severely threatened unless its farming methods are urgently adapted to take account of climate change.

São Paulo, 2 September − Higher temperatures, drastic changes in rainfall, lower productivity, more blight and disease − these are just some of the expected consequences of climate change in Brazil if the projections of 345 scientists who make up the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change (PBMC) prove true.

They predict that if present trends in greenhouse gas emissions continue, average temperatures in Brazil will be 3º-6ºC higher by 2100 than they were at the end of the 20th century.

Rainfall patterns could change drastically, increasing by up to 30% in the south and south-east of the country, while diminishing by up to 40% in the north and north-east.

The forecasts, based on research over the last six years, are contained in a report that provides the most complete diagnosis yet of the future tendencies of the Brazilian climate.

The report will be presented at Brazil’s first national conference on global climate change, to be held in São Paulo from 9-13 September and organised by the publicly-funded São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP). The data will then be included in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to be released two weeks later.

The changes in temperature and rainfall will not be confined to Brazil, the largest country in South America, but will also affect neighbouring countries.

“With the exception of Chile’s central and southern coast, where the last decades have seen a cooling, there will be a rise in temperature in all the other regions of South America,” says Jose Marengo, a climate scientist at Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE), who uses regional climate models to develop projections for the future.
'A bit crazy'

“There is a feeling that the seasons have become a bit crazy, with more frequent extremes of climate.”

Tornados, once a rare occurrence, will become more frequent. Big and medium-sized cities will become hotter, with altered rain patterns. Rainfall in the Amazon region and in the semi-arid caatinga area of the north-east could fall by 40%, whereas in the south and south-east it could increase by 30%.

For the cerrado savanna region of the central plateau, which has become a major cereal growing area, and the wetlands of the Pantanal, climate models also indicate significant changes, although the reliability of these projections is lower.

All these changes will have a dramatic effect on harvests in one of the world’s major food producing countries, but Brazil’s farmers have so far shown little awareness of the problems in store, and consequently have not begun to adapt to the changing climate. Monocultures continue to expand, advancing into the Amazon region and taking over the cerrado.

“We must act now to avoid a worsening situation,” warns Eduardo Assad, one of the PBMC researchers, who works for Embrapa, the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation.

Suggested measures include investing intensively in mixed agricultural systems, and abandoning the practice of monoculture. Farmers should also increase the biological fixation of nitrogen, reduce the use of pesticides (since 2008, Brazil has been the world’s biggest consumer), and increase the rotation of crops.

    "We need stronger government guidance [for farmers] . . .
    The reorganisation of Brazil’s rural space is urgent."

“The knowledge to do all this already exists, but we need stronger government guidance [for farmers],” Assad warns. “We must increase productivity in the mid-west, south-east and south to avoid the destruction of the Amazon. The reorganisation of Brazil’s rural space is urgent.”

Antonio Magalhães, adviser to the government’s Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE), also believes that agricultural, industrial and urban policies must be changed to include concerns with sustainability and extreme climate events such as rainstorms and droughts. “We must widen the debate and overcome institutional rigidity, resistances and short-term interests.”

Crop losses are already being noted. “Since 2000, we have seen a fall in productivity in some regions, principally in coffee, soy and maize,” Assad says.

Soy will be the most affected. By the end of 2013, Brazil is expected to overtake the US to become the world’s major producer, but that position will be hard to sustain if the expected effects of climate change kick in.

“Even if the amount of rain stays the same, soil humidity will fall, because the rise in average temperatures will increase evaporation,” Magalhães warns.

This will affect regions, such as the semi-arid north-east, where lack of water is a constant. The productivity of basic crops such as maize, beans, cotton, cassava and rice will suffer, leading to a drop in income in the region that is already Brazil’s most backward in terms of social indicators intensifying poverty.

The federal government’s successful poverty reduction programme, Bolsa Familia, will not be enough to stop a renewal of migration from the rural area to the cities, worsening infrastructure problems related to housing, transport and sanitation.

The PBMC report foresees that climate change in Brazil will also bring an increase in fungal diseases and pests, caused by the rise of CO² levels in the air and ultraviolet B radiation. In addition to cereals, fruit crops such as banana, mango and grape will be hit.

The report also says that more, and more intense, episodes of flooding and drought could alter the volume of the rivers and affect the supply of water to dam reservoirs. Hydropower accounts for well over half of Brazil’s energy.

Biodiversity will be badly affected, including that of aquatic environments. Some biomes, characterised by a dominant vegetation, have already lost large areas because of intensive agriculture − the cerrado has lost 47% and the caatinga 44% − and it is now questionable whether their ecological equilibrium can be restored.

In the cities, where more than 85% of Brazilians now live, there will be a greater risk of mudslides and worse flooding, while many of the major cities − such as Rio, Salvador and Recife − are on the coast, and therefore subject to a possible rise in ocean levels.
Future planning

The researchers want their report to be used to guide the drawing up and implementation of public policies for climate change adaptation and mitigation, as well as to help companies in their future planning.

The report, the first by the PBMC, also marks Brazil’s acceptance by the IPCC as a nation supplying projections on a planetary scale. This is because it has developed its own climate simulation model, the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) −  the only country in the southern hemisphere to do so.

The establishment of the BESM has enabled the scientists to reconstruct recent occurrences of the El Niño climate phenomenon − caused by abnormal heating up of the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific, which affects the rainfall regime in a large part of the planet − and simulate the effects of future El Niños. − Climate News Network